League One

League One | Gameweek 37

Mar 9, 2024 at 3pm UK

Memorial Stadium

Bristol Rovers
0 - 3
Derby

Conteh (34'), Martin (45+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gayle (55'), Barkhuizen (58'), Waghorn (89')
Adams (38'), Gayle (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Bristol Rovers and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bristol Rovers

All competitions

Last Game: Leyton Orient 0-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, March 2 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 3-0 Port Vale
Saturday, March 2 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.89%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Bristol Rovers win was 1-0 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Bristol Rovers	Draw	Derby County
30.59% ( 0.4)	26.21%	43.2% ( -0.4)

Both teams to score 52.06% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.7% (

0.16)

52.3% (

-0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.01% (

0.14)

73.99% (

-0.14)

Bristol Rovers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.54% (

0.37)

31.46% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.16% (

0.43)

67.84% (

-0.43)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.96% (

-0.13)

24.04% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.69% (

-0.18)

58.31% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Bristol Rovers 30.59%

Derby County 43.2%

Draw 26.2%

Bristol Rovers	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 8.75% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 2.78% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.87% Total : 30.59%	1-1 @ 12.46% 0-0 @ 7.56% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.2%	0-1 @ 10.78% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 8.89% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.68% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 4.22% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.73% Total : 43.2%