League One

League One | Gameweek 39

Mar 16, 2024 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
1 - 0
Bolton

Wilson (78')
Mendez-Laing (59')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Toal (28')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Bolton Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 2-1 Reading
Tuesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions

Last Game: Bolton 5-0 Oxford Utd
Tuesday, March 12 at 8pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 48.67%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 26.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Bolton Wanderers
48.67%	24.5%	26.83%

Both teams to score 55.07% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.77% (

-0)

47.23% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.54% (

-0)

69.46% (

0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.54% (

-0)

19.46% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.68% (

-0)

51.32% (

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.38% (

-0)

31.62% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.97% (

-0)

68.03% (

Score Analysis

Derby County 48.66%

Bolton Wanderers 26.83%

Draw 24.5%

Derby County	Draw	Bolton Wanderers
1-0 @ 10.07% 2-1 @ 9.49% 2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.18% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.5% 3-2 @ 2.98% 4-1 @ 2.12% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.84% 4-2 @ 1.22% Other @ 3.03% Total : 48.66%	1-1 @ 11.59% 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.46% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.5%	0-1 @ 7.09% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.68% 0-2 @ 4.08% 1-3 @ 2.56% 2-3 @ 2.1% 0-3 @ 1.57% Other @ 2.76% Total : 26.83%