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League One | Gameweek 38
Mar 12, 2024 at 8pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
Oxford United

Bolton
5 - 0
Oxford Utd

Ogbeta (19'), Cogley (27'), Thomason (59'), Collins (65'), Sheehan (69')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Dale (55'), Brannagan (63'), Brown (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Exeter 2-2 Bolton
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Oxford Utd 2-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 3-1 Oxford United

Bolton are back at their home fortress on Tuesday night and will be confident of breaking into the top two with all three points against Oxford. The U's edged past a struggling Cheltenham side on the weekend, but we feel that Buckingham's men will not be able to repeat the trick in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 60.82%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 18.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.17%) and 1-0 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Oxford United win it was 1-2 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawOxford United
60.82% (-0.739 -0.74) 20.48% (0.404 0.4) 18.7% (0.331 0.33)
Both teams to score 57.95% (-0.836 -0.84)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.61% (-1.382 -1.38)38.38% (1.379 1.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.33% (-1.482 -1.48)60.67% (1.477 1.48)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.77% (-0.62700000000001 -0.63)12.22% (0.623 0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.08% (-1.329 -1.33)37.91% (1.325 1.33)
Oxford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.02% (-0.47999999999999 -0.48)33.97% (0.476 0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.34% (-0.521 -0.52)70.65% (0.518 0.52)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 60.82%
    Oxford United 18.7%
    Draw 20.48%
Bolton WanderersDrawOxford United
2-1 @ 9.9% (0.043000000000001 0.04)
2-0 @ 9.17% (0.157 0.16)
1-0 @ 8.73% (0.357 0.36)
3-1 @ 6.94% (-0.142 -0.14)
3-0 @ 6.43% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.75% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-1 @ 3.65% (-0.167 -0.17)
4-0 @ 3.38% (-0.109 -0.11)
4-2 @ 1.97% (-0.117 -0.12)
5-1 @ 1.53% (-0.11 -0.11)
5-0 @ 1.42% (-0.082 -0.08)
Other @ 3.96%
Total : 60.82%
1-1 @ 9.42% (0.268 0.27)
2-2 @ 5.35% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 4.15% (0.267 0.27)
3-3 @ 1.35% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 20.48%
1-2 @ 5.09% (0.08 0.08)
0-1 @ 4.48% (0.233 0.23)
0-2 @ 2.42% (0.096 0.1)
2-3 @ 1.92% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.83% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 18.7%

How you voted: Bolton vs Oxford Utd

Bolton Wanderers
73.8%
Draw
18.0%
Oxford United
8.2%
61
Head to Head
Nov 28, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 20
Oxford Utd
0-0
Bolton
Mills (37'), Bodin (45+3')
Thomason (25'), Baxter (45+2')
Apr 15, 2023 3pm
Oct 29, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 17
Bolton
1-3
Oxford Utd
Charles (73')
Anderson (25'), Brown (53'), Seddon (79')
Feb 12, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 33
Oxford Utd
2-3
Bolton
Bodin (9', 32')
Moore (26'), Kane (70'), Seddon (76')
John (10'), Fossey (38'), Bakayoko (86')
Afolayan (74')
Aug 21, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 4
Bolton
2-1
Oxford Utd
Afolayan (45'), Doyle (63')
Taylor (11')
Taylor (39'), McGuane (85'), Forde (90+2')
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Saturday, June 15
 
5pm
 
8pm
Sunday, June 16
 
5pm
 
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Monday, June 17
 
2pm
 
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Tuesday, June 18
 
5pm
Wednesday, June 19
 
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Thursday, June 20
 
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Group Stage
Spain
vs.
Italy
Friday, June 21
 
2pm
 
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8pm
Saturday, June 22
 
5pm
 
8pm
Sunday, June 23
 
8pm
 
8pm
Monday, June 24
 
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Wednesday, June 26
 
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Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Germany Germany11003
2 Hungary Hungary00000
3 Switzerland Switzerland00000
4 Scotland flag Scotland10010

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Albania national flag Albania00000
2 Croatia Croatia00000
3 Italy Italy00000
4 Spain Spain00000

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Denmark Denmark00000
2 England flag England00000
3 Serbia Serbia00000
4 Slovenia Slovenia00000

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Austria Austria00000
2 France France00000
3 Netherlands Netherlands00000
4 Poland Poland00000

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Belgium Belgium00000
2 Romania Romania00000
3 Slovakia Slovakia00000
4 Ukraine Ukraine00000

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Czech Republic Czech Republic00000
2 Georgia Georgia00000
3 Portugal Portugal00000
4 Turkey Turkey00000


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