Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 35

Apr 27, 2024 at 8pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
2 - 2
Chelsea

Cucurella (4' og.), Rogers (42')
Luiz (49'), Rogers (64'), Bailey (66')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Madueke (62'), Gallagher (81')
Caicedo (49'), Mudryk (82'), Silva (87'), Badiashile (90+10'), Madueke (90+10')

Reaction

Chelsea head coach Mauricio Pochettino after 2-2 draw at Aston Villa on April 27, 2024.

Mauricio Pochettino: 'Last-gasp VAR decision against Chelsea was painful'

Chelsea head coach Mauricio Pochettino admits the controversial last-gasp VAR decision that went against his side in Saturday's 2-2 draw at Aston Villa was "painful".

Apr 28, 09:30

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth
Sunday, April 21 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Chelsea

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Arsenal 5-0 Chelsea
Tuesday, April 23 at 8pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 59.62%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 20.27% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.03%) and 1-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (5.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Chelsea
59.62% ( 0.06)	20.11% ( -0.03)	20.27% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 62.22% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.89% (

0.1)

34.11% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.01% (

0.11)

55.98% (

-0.11)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.76% (

0.05)

11.24% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.2% (

0.1)

35.8% (

-0.1)

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.1% (

0.03)

29.9% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34% (

0.04)

66% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 59.62%

Chelsea 20.27%

Draw 20.11%

Aston Villa	Draw	Chelsea
2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.03% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.35% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.85% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.26% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.86% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.96% Total : 59.62%	1-1 @ 8.87% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.36% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.32% Total : 20.11%	1-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.06% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.15% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 2.92% Total : 20.27%