UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 11, 2024 at 8pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
2 - 1
Lille

(3-3 on aggregate)

Watkins (13'), McGinn (56')
Luiz (49'), Tielemans (77'), Martinez (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Diakite (84')
Fonseca (45+1')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Aston Villa 3-3 Brentford
Saturday, April 6 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lille

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Lille 3-1 Marseille
Friday, April 5 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Lille had a probability of 36.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Lille win was 1-2 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Lille
38.8% ( 0.04)	24.66% ( 0.01)	36.55% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 58.98% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.93% (

-0.04)

44.07% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.55% (

-0.04)

66.45% (

0.04)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.39% (

-0)

22.61% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.77%

56.23% (

-0)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.21% (

-0.05)

23.79% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.06% (

-0.06)

57.94% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 38.8%

Lille 36.55%

Draw 24.65%

Aston Villa	Draw	Lille
2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.23% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.95% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.57% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.13% 4-0 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 2.31% Total : 38.8%	1-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.13% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.65%	1-2 @ 8.25% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.73% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.55% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.95% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.07% Total : 36.55%