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UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 7, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Merkur Arena
Lille

Sturm Graz
0 - 3
Lille


Wuthrich (68')
FT(HT: 0-1)
David (28', 51'), Zhegrova (71')
Bouaddi (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Sturm Graz and Lille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Sturm Graz 4-0 Wolfsberger
Sunday, March 3 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga

Lille

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Reims 0-1 Lille
Saturday, March 2 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 37.98%. A win for Lille had a probability of 36.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (6.16%). The likeliest Lille win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
Sturm GrazDrawLille
37.98% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)25.48% (0.0039999999999978 0)36.54% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 56.03% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.13% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)47.87% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.95% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)70.05% (0.0099999999999909 0.01)
Sturm Graz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.25% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)24.75% (0.013000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.69% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)59.31% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.46% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)25.54%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.6% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)60.4%
Score Analysis
    Sturm Graz 37.98%
    Lille 36.54%
    Draw 25.48%
Sturm GrazDrawLille
1-0 @ 8.83% (0.0010000000000012 0)
2-1 @ 8.41% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 6.16% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 3.92% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 2.87% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.37% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 0.93% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 1.82%
Total : 37.98%
1-1 @ 12.04%
0-0 @ 6.32% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 5.74% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.22%
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.48%
0-1 @ 8.63% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.22% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 5.89% (0.0040000000000004 0)
1-3 @ 3.74% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 2.68% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.61%
1-4 @ 1.28% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-4 @ 0.91%
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 36.54%

How you voted: Sturm Graz vs Lille

Sturm Graz
46.0%
Draw
26.0%
Lille
28.0%
100