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UEFA Conference League

Lille
Conference League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 14, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille
1 - 1
Sturm Graz

Santos (43')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Biereth (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Lille and Sturm Graz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Lille 2-2 Rennes
Sunday, March 10 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Hartberg 1-1 Sturm Graz
Sunday, March 10 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 56.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 19.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.47%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.

Result
LilleDrawSturm Graz
56.5% (0.474 0.47)23.53% (-0.217 -0.22)19.96% (-0.253 -0.25)
Both teams to score 50.01% (0.27500000000001 0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.03% (0.561 0.56)49.97% (-0.559 -0.56)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.05% (0.499 0.5)71.95% (-0.496 -0.5)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.51% (0.381 0.38)17.49% (-0.377 -0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.02% (0.658 0.66)47.98% (-0.654 -0.65)
Sturm Graz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.61% (0.053999999999995 0.05)39.38% (-0.052 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.92% (0.050000000000001 0.05)76.08% (-0.046999999999997 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Lille 56.5%
    Sturm Graz 19.96%
    Draw 23.53%
LilleDrawSturm Graz
1-0 @ 12% (-0.13 -0.13)
2-0 @ 10.47% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.76% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
3-0 @ 6.09% (0.087 0.09)
3-1 @ 5.67% (0.088 0.09)
4-0 @ 2.65% (0.069 0.07)
3-2 @ 2.64% (0.045 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.47% (0.069 0.07)
4-2 @ 1.15% (0.034 0.03)
5-0 @ 0.93% (0.035 0.04)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 56.5%
1-1 @ 11.19% (-0.1 -0.1)
0-0 @ 6.89% (-0.157 -0.16)
2-2 @ 4.55% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 23.53%
0-1 @ 6.42% (-0.138 -0.14)
1-2 @ 5.21% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
0-2 @ 2.99% (-0.06 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.62% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.41% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
0-3 @ 0.93% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 1.38%
Total : 19.96%

How you voted: Lille vs Sturm Graz

Lille
85.9%
Draw
7.8%
Sturm Graz
6.3%
64
Head to Head
Mar 7, 2024 5.45pm
Round of 16 1st Leg
Sturm Graz
0-3
Lille

Wuthrich (68')
David (28', 51'), Zhegrova (71')
Bouaddi (74')
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