Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.54%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (8.83%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.