Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 58.93%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-2 (5.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.