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Europa League

Benfica
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Toulouse

Benfica
2 - 1
Toulouse

di Maria (68' pen., 90+8' pen.)
Kokcu (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Desler (75')
Spierings (37'), Martinez (38'), Desler (43'), Restes (58'), Magri (90+6'), Skytta (90+1'), Mawissa (90+2')
Mawissa (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Benfica and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Last Game: Guimaraes 2-2 Benfica
Sunday, February 11 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Toulouse

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Toulouse 1-2 Nantes
Sunday, February 11 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 68.32%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 13.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 1-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-2 (3.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawToulouse
68.32% (0.054000000000002 0.05)18.11% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)13.57% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Both teams to score 54.32% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.62% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)37.37% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.41% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)59.59% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.02% (0.012 0.01)9.98% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.02% (0.027000000000001 0.03)32.98% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.35% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06)39.65% (0.056000000000004 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.67% (-0.053999999999998 -0.05)76.33% (0.054999999999993 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 68.31%
    Toulouse 13.57%
    Draw 18.11%
BenficaDrawToulouse
2-0 @ 10.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 9.12% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-0 @ 8.07% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.47% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 4.65% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.3% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 3.45% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
5-0 @ 2.14% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.99% (-0.002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.98% (0.002 0)
5-2 @ 0.92% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.98%
Total : 68.31%
1-1 @ 8.44% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.5% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.96% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 18.11%
1-2 @ 3.9% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
0-1 @ 3.66% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 1.69% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 1.39% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.2% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.73%
Total : 13.57%

How you voted: Benfica vs Toulouse

Benfica
90.4%
Draw
6.0%
Toulouse
3.6%
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