Man City

4 - 1

Aston Villa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 17.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.