Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 23

Feb 12, 2023 at 4.30pm UK

Etihad Stadium

Man City
3 - 1
Aston Villa

Rodri (4'), Gundogan (39'), Mahrez (45+1' pen.)

FT(HT: 3-0)

Watkins (61')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Spurs 1-0 Man City
Sunday, February 5 at 4.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Aston Villa

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Aston Villa 2-4 Leicester
Saturday, February 4 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 81.95%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 6.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.41%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Manchester City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Manchester City.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Aston Villa
81.95% ( -0.87)	11.67% ( 0.54)	6.38% ( 0.33)

Both teams to score 49.64% (

-0.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.53% (

-1.45)

28.47% (

1.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.68% (

-1.81)

49.32% (

1.81)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.83% (

-0.41)

5.17% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

79.53% (

-1.24)

20.47% (

1.24)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.35% (

-0.2)

47.65% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.03% (

-0.15)

82.97% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Manchester City 81.94%

Aston Villa 6.38%

Draw 11.67%

Manchester City	Draw	Aston Villa
2-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.34) 3-0 @ 10.67% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.19) 1-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.42) 4-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.17) 5-0 @ 4.69% ( -0.25) 5-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.19) 4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.08) 6-1 @ 1.72% ( -0.15) 5-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.08) 7-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.93% Total : 81.94%	1-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.21) Other @ 0.83% Total : 11.67%	1-2 @ 2% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.55% Total : 6.38%