Potential new FA Cup header

FA Cup

Aston Villa logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 8, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
Villa Park
Stevenage

Aston Villa
1 - 2
Stevenage

Sanson (33')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Reid (88' pen.), Campbell (90')

The Match

Match Report

Stevenage launch a stunning late fightback to defeat Premier League side Aston Villa by a 2-1 scoreline in the FA Cup third round.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between Aston Villa and Stevenage, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-1 Wolves
Wednesday, January 4 at 8pm in Premier League

Stevenage

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Stevenage 1-0 Gillingham
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in League Two

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 47.93%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 27.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.

Result
Aston VillaDrawStevenage
47.93% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)24.24% (0.142 0.14)27.83% (-0.146 -0.15)
Both teams to score 56.75% (-0.596 -0.6)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.61% (-0.733 -0.73)45.39% (0.738 0.74)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.28% (-0.705 -0.7)67.72% (0.711 0.71)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.96% (-0.28400000000001 -0.28)19.04% (0.289 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.39% (-0.478 -0.48)50.62% (0.484 0.48)
Stevenage Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.1% (-0.483 -0.48)29.9% (0.49 0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34% (-0.591 -0.59)66% (0.595 0.59)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 47.93%
    Stevenage 27.83%
    Draw 24.23%
Aston VillaDrawStevenage
2-1 @ 9.46% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 9.44% (0.211 0.21)
2-0 @ 7.83% (0.104 0.1)
3-1 @ 5.23% (-0.049 -0.05)
3-0 @ 4.33% (0.019 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.16% (-0.073 -0.07)
4-1 @ 2.17% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.8% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.31% (-0.042 -0.04)
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 47.93%
1-1 @ 11.39% (0.1 0.1)
2-2 @ 5.71% (-0.079 -0.08)
0-0 @ 5.69% (0.178 0.18)
3-3 @ 1.27% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.23%
1-2 @ 6.88% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-1 @ 6.87% (0.124 0.12)
0-2 @ 4.15% (0.019 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.77% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.3% (-0.064 -0.06)
0-3 @ 1.67% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 3.19%
Total : 27.83%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Stevenage

Aston Villa
75.0%
Draw
14.3%
Stevenage
10.7%
56