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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 67.16%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 11.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.47%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.65%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Stevenage in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Stevenage.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | Gillingham |
67.16% ( 0.21) | 21.18% ( -0.11) | 11.66% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 39.08% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.19% ( 0.23) | 54.81% ( -0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.89% ( 0.19) | 76.11% ( -0.19) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.47% ( 0.14) | 15.53% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.54% ( 0.27) | 44.46% ( -0.27) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.27% ( -0.02) | 53.73% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
12.89% ( -0.01) | 87.11% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | Gillingham |
1-0 @ 15.54% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 14.47% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.56% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.55% Total : 67.16% | 1-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.35% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 2.79% Other @ 0.39% Total : 21.18% | 0-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.87% Total : 11.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
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