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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 49.07%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Barrow had a probability of 24.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Barrow win it was 0-1 (8.44%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | Barrow |
49.07% ( 0.09) | 26.35% ( -0.03) | 24.58% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 47.49% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.8% ( 0.04) | 56.19% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.75% ( 0.03) | 77.24% ( -0.04) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.04% ( 0.06) | 22.95% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.26% ( 0.09) | 56.73% ( -0.1) |
Barrow Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.64% ( -0.04) | 38.36% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.88% ( -0.03) | 75.11% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | Barrow |
1-0 @ 12.95% 2-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.14% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.68% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 49.06% | 1-1 @ 12.41% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.8% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.38% Other @ 0.75% Total : 26.34% | 0-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.56% Total : 24.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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