Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.