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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salford City win with a probability of 40.21%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 31.73% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salford City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (10.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Salford City would win this match.
Result | ||
Gillingham | Draw | Salford City |
31.73% ( 0.1) | 28.07% ( -0.3) | 40.21% ( 0.21) |
Both teams to score 46.96% ( 0.87) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41% ( 1.07) | 59% ( -1.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.53% ( 0.83) | 79.47% ( -0.82) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.88% ( 0.64) | 34.12% ( -0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.19% ( 0.68) | 70.81% ( -0.67) |
Salford City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.29% ( 0.64) | 28.72% ( -0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.46% ( 0.79) | 64.55% ( -0.78) |
Score Analysis |
Gillingham | Draw | Salford City |
1-0 @ 10.53% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 2.53% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.32% Total : 31.72% | 1-1 @ 13.14% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 9.8% ( -0.4) 2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.72% Total : 28.06% | 0-1 @ 12.22% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 8.2% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 7.63% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.41% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 3.17% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.68% Total : 40.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 40 |
2 | Port Vale | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 36 |
3 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 34 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 33 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 33 |
6 | Chesterfield | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 31 |
8 | MK Dons | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 30 |
9 | Gillingham | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 29 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 28 |
11 | Notts County | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 28 |
12 | Salford City | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 27 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 26 |
14 | Bromley | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
17 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 22 |
18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 22 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 18 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 16 |
23 | Morecambe | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 14 |
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