Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 33.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
Southampton | Draw | Aston Villa |
40.29% ( 0.08) | 26.1% ( -0.01) | 33.62% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 53.51% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.07% ( 0.03) | 50.92% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.2% ( 0.02) | 72.8% ( -0.03) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.09% ( 0.05) | 24.91% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.47% ( 0.07) | 59.53% ( -0.07) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.25% ( -0.03) | 28.74% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.42% ( -0.04) | 64.58% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Southampton | Draw | Aston Villa |
1-0 @ 9.95% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.92% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.6% Total : 40.29% | 1-1 @ 12.4% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.16% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.09% | 0-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 2.63% Total : 33.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 26 | 56 | 77 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 33 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 80 | 32 | 48 | 76 |
3 | Liverpool | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 75 | 34 | 41 | 74 |
4 | Aston Villa | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 66 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 65 | 49 | 16 | 60 |
6 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 53 |
7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 69 | 54 | 15 | 50 |
8 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 63 | -9 | 48 |
9 | Chelsea | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 61 | 57 | 4 | 47 |
10 | Bournemouth | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 45 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 54 | -2 | 44 |
12 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 43 |
13 | Fulham | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 42 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 39 |
15 | Brentford | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 35 |
16 | Everton | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 60 | -18 | 26 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 47 | 75 | -28 | 25 |
19 | Burnley | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 23 |
20 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 34 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 33 | 92 | -59 | 16 |
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