Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Southampton |
| 32.07% | 25.71% | 42.22% |
| Both teams to score 54.3% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.32% | 49.68% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.3% | 71.7% |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.87% | 29.13% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.94% | 65.06% |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.62% | 23.38% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.65% | 57.35% |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Southampton |
| 1-0 @ 8.4% 2-1 @ 7.53% 2-0 @ 5.18% 3-1 @ 3.1% 3-2 @ 2.25% 3-0 @ 2.13% 4-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.54% Total : 32.07% | 1-1 @ 12.2% 0-0 @ 6.81% 2-2 @ 5.47% 3-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.7% | 0-1 @ 9.9% 1-2 @ 8.87% 0-2 @ 7.19% 1-3 @ 4.3% 0-3 @ 3.49% 2-3 @ 2.65% 1-4 @ 1.56% 0-4 @ 1.27% 2-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.03% Total : 42.22% |