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Angers
AJ Auxerre
Brest logo
Le Havre
Lens logo
Lille
Lyon
Marseille
Monaco
Montpellier
Nantes
Nice
PSG logo
Reims
Rennes
Saint-Etienne
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28
Apr 5, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Marseille

Lille
3 - 1
Marseille

David (54' pen.), Cabella (71'), Gudmundsson (84')
Santos (21')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Ismaily (81')
Harit (27'), Gigot (52'), Merlin (57'), Kondogbia (70'), Balerdi (77'), Veretout (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lille 2-1 Lens
Friday, March 29 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 0-2 PSG
Sunday, March 31 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lille 2-0 Marseille

No longer enjoying Gasset's new manager bounce and still working with a ravaged set of defensive options, another dismal weekend awaits the Marseille faithful, whose 10-hour journey to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy will likely go unrewarded. Visiting a ground where Lille are hardly ever outclassed and have not failed to score in over a year, the stage is set for Gasset's men to suffer a fourth straight defeat, as Les Dogues enhance their European credentials at the expense of their visitors' top-six hopes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 53.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 22.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Marseille win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
LilleDrawMarseille
53.77% (0.126 0.13) 23.54% (0.036000000000001 0.04) 22.69% (-0.161 -0.16)
Both teams to score 53.83% (-0.32599999999999 -0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.2% (-0.331 -0.33)46.8% (0.331 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.94% (-0.31 -0.31)69.06% (0.31100000000001 0.31)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.67% (-0.074999999999989 -0.07)17.33% (0.074999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.3% (-0.133 -0.13)47.7% (0.133 0.13)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.12% (-0.33499999999999 -0.33)34.88% (0.334 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.38% (-0.354 -0.35)71.62% (0.354 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Lille 53.77%
    Marseille 22.69%
    Draw 23.53%
LilleDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 10.59% (0.12 0.12)
2-1 @ 9.78% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-0 @ 9.29% (0.083 0.08)
3-1 @ 5.72% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.43% (0.035 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.01% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.5% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.38% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.32% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 3.76%
Total : 53.77%
1-1 @ 11.15% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.04% (0.083 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.047 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 23.53%
0-1 @ 6.37% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 5.88% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-2 @ 3.35% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.06% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.81% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.18% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 22.69%

How you voted: Lille vs Marseille

Lille
71.9%
Draw
16.3%
Marseille
11.9%
135
Head to Head
Nov 4, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 11
Marseille
0-0
Lille
Harit (42'), Gigot (53')
Andre (27'), Bentaleb (70'), Yazici (73')
May 20, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 36
Lille
2-1
Marseille
David (50' pen.), Bamba (72')
Andre (57'), Bamba (73'), Bayo (85')
Clauss (29')
Balerdi (37'), Rongier (55')
Sep 10, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 7
Marseille
2-1
Lille
Sanchez (26'), Gigot (61')
Ismaily (12')
Jan 16, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 21
Marseille
1-1
Lille
Under (75')
Guendouzi (4')
Botman (15')
Andre (30'), Grbic (55'), Celik (55'), Lihadji (86')
Andre (32')
Oct 3, 2021 4pm
Gameweek 9
Lille
2-0
Marseille
David (28', 90+4')
Mandava (11'), Yilmaz (66')

Under (24'), Balerdi (37')
Under (77')
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Saturday, June 22
 
5pm
 
8pm
Sunday, June 23
 
8pm
Monday, June 24
 
8pm
 
8pm
Tuesday, June 25
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Wednesday, June 26
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Saturday, June 29
Sunday, June 30
Monday, July 1
Tuesday, July 2
Friday, July 5
Saturday, July 6
Tuesday, July 9
Wednesday, July 10
Sunday, July 14
Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany22006
2 Switzerland Switzerland21104
3 Scotland flag Scotland20111
4 Hungary Hungary20020

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain22006
2 Italy Italy21013
3 Albania national flag Albania20111
4 Croatia Croatia20111

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 England flag England21104
2 Denmark Denmark20202
3 Slovenia Slovenia20202
4 Serbia Serbia20111

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Netherlands Netherlands21104
2 France France21104
3 Austria Austria21013
4 Poland Poland20020

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Romania Romania11003
2 Ukraine Ukraine21013
3 Slovakia Slovakia21013
4 Belgium Belgium10010

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Turkey Turkey11003
2 Portugal Portugal11003
3 Czech Republic Czech Republic10010
4 Georgia Georgia10010


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