Europa League

Europa League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 14, 2024 at 5.45pm UK

Estadio de la Ceramica

Villarreal
3 - 1
Marseille

(Marseille win 5-3 on aggregate)

Capoue (32'), Sorloth (54'), Mosquera (85')
Marcelino (19'), Coquelin (19'), Baena (90+2'), Mosquera (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Clauss (90+4')
Sarr (18'), Ounahi (48'), Merlin (69'), Kondogbia (84'), Lopez (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Villarreal and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Betis 2-3 Villarreal
Sunday, March 10 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Marseille

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Nantes
Sunday, March 10 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.

Result
Villarreal	Draw	Marseille
41.23% ( 0.08)	24.59% ( 0.01)	34.18% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 58.8% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.87% (

-0.08)

44.13% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.49% (

-0.08)

66.51% (

0.08)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.55% (

21.45% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.52% (

0.01)

54.47% (

-0)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.87% (

-0.09)

25.13% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.16% (

-0.13)

59.84% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Villarreal 41.23%

Marseille 34.18%

Draw 24.59%

Villarreal	Draw	Marseille
2-1 @ 8.82% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.3% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.13% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.74% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0) Other @ 2.58% Total : 41.23%	1-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.09% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.59%	1-2 @ 7.91% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.45% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.64% Total : 34.18%