Europa League

Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg

Feb 22, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
3 - 1
Shakhtar

(Marseille win 5-3 on aggregate)

Aubameyang (23'), Sarr (74'), Kondogbia (81')
Gigot (17')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Sudakov (12' pen.)
de Sousa Lemos (45'), Konoplya (45+2'), Matviyenko (58'), Stepanenko (80'), Rakitskiy (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Marseille and Shakhtar Donetsk, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Brest 1-0 Marseille
Sunday, February 18 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Shakhtar Donetsk

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Shakhtar 2-2 Marseille
Thursday, February 15 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 47.26%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Shakhtar Donetsk
47.26% ( -0.07)	24.12% ( 0.02)	28.62% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 57.76% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.67% (

-0.05)

44.33% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.3% (

-0.05)

66.71% (

0.05)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.11% (

-0.05)

18.89% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.63% (

-0.08)

50.37% (

0.08)

Shakhtar Donetsk Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.21% (

0.02)

28.79% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.36% (

0.02)

64.64% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Marseille 47.26%

Shakhtar Donetsk 28.62%

Draw 24.11%

Marseille	Draw	Shakhtar Donetsk
2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.22% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.18% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0) Other @ 3.29% Total : 47.26%	1-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.11%	1-2 @ 7.03% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.92% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 28.62%