Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 68.46%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Metz had a probability of 13.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.71%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (3.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.