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Lyon
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 20
Feb 4, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Marseille

Lyon
1 - 0
Marseille

Lacazette (37')
O'Brien (40'), Matic (61')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ounahi (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lyon and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lyon 2-3 Rennes
Friday, January 26 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-2 Monaco
Saturday, January 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lyon 1-1 Marseille

There is no denying that Lyon are in a mess right now, but they have shown significant signs of improvement under the guidance of Pierre Sage, as they showed last week when they almost completed a comeback from three goals down. Marseille are on a solid run coming into this match, but they have been leaky on the road this term and have managed just one win in their nine away games. Despite the gap in the table, this looks like a fairly level matchup on paper, and we feel there will be nothing to split these rivals at the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 39.76%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-0 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.

Result
LyonDrawMarseille
35.15% (0.759 0.76) 25.09% (0.024000000000001 0.02) 39.76% (-0.78 -0.78)
Both teams to score 57.24% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.75% (0.038000000000004 0.04)46.25% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.45% (0.035 0.04)68.55% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.42% (0.461 0.46)25.58% (-0.457 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.55% (0.625 0.63)60.45% (-0.62 -0.62)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.91% (-0.369 -0.37)23.09% (0.375 0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.06% (-0.549 -0.55)56.94% (0.553 0.55)
Score Analysis
    Lyon 35.15%
    Marseille 39.76%
    Draw 25.09%
LyonDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 8.05% (0.093000000000001 0.09)
2-1 @ 8.05% (0.11 0.11)
2-0 @ 5.49% (0.134 0.13)
3-1 @ 3.66% (0.097 0.1)
3-2 @ 2.68% (0.042 0.04)
3-0 @ 2.5% (0.093 0.09)
4-1 @ 1.25% (0.049 0.05)
4-2 @ 0.91% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 35.15%
1-1 @ 11.8% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.91% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.9% (0.016 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.31% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.09%
0-1 @ 8.66% (-0.109 -0.11)
1-2 @ 8.65% (-0.090999999999999 -0.09)
0-2 @ 6.34% (-0.151 -0.15)
1-3 @ 4.23% (-0.092 -0.09)
0-3 @ 3.1% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-3 @ 2.88% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.55% (-0.052 -0.05)
0-4 @ 1.14% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-4 @ 1.06% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 39.76%

How you voted: Lyon vs Marseille

Lyon
24.0%
Draw
36.0%
Marseille
40.0%
100
Head to Head
Dec 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 10
Marseille
3-0
Lyon
Oliveira (21'), Murillo (25'), Aubameyang (55')
Ounahi (49')

Lovren (21'), Diawara (87')
Apr 23, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Lyon
1-2
Marseille
Lacazette (68')
Under (44'), Gusto (90+2' og.)
Nov 6, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 14
Marseille
1-0
Lyon
Gigot (43')
May 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 35
Marseille
0-3
Lyon

Sampaoli (28'), Lopez (57'), Gueye (71')
Lukeba (55'), Dembele (76'), Toko Ekambi (88')
Dembele (60')
Feb 1, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 14
Lyon
2-1
Marseille
Shaqiri (76'), Dembele (89')
Guendouzi (10')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG342210281334876
2MonacoMonaco34207768422667
3Brest341710753341961
4Lille341611752341859
5Nice341510940291155
6Lyon34165134955-653
7Lens34149114537851
8Marseille3413111052411150
9Reims34138134247-547
10Rennes341210125346746
11Toulouse341110134246-443
12Montpellier HSCMontpellier341012124348-541
13StrasbourgStrasbourg34109153850-1239
14NantesNantes3496193055-2533
15Le HavreLe Havre34711163445-1132
16Metz3485213558-2329
17Lorient3478194366-2329
RClermont34510192660-3425


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