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Europa League

Shakhtar Donetsk
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 15, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist
Marseille

Shakhtar
2 - 2
Marseille

Matviyenko (68'), de Sousa Lemos (90+2')
Konoplya (49'), Zubkov (78'), de Sousa Lemos (90+3'), Bondar (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Aubameyang (64'), Ndiaye (90')
Balerdi (27')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Shakhtar Donetsk and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk

All competitions
Last Game: Porto 5-3 Shakhtar
Wednesday, December 13 at 8pm in Champions League

Marseille

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Marseille 1-1 Metz
Friday, February 9 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 51.15%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 25.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9%) and 0-2 (8.05%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-1 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Shakhtar DonetskDrawMarseille
25.62% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)23.23% (-0.004999999999999 -0)51.15% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
Both teams to score 58.21% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.44% (0.012 0.01)42.56% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.04% (0.011999999999993 0.01)64.96% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Shakhtar Donetsk Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.91% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)30.09% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.77% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)66.23% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.27% (0.010000000000005 0.01)16.72% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.37% (0.022999999999996 0.02)46.63% (-0.026000000000003 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Shakhtar Donetsk 25.62%
    Marseille 51.15%
    Draw 23.22%
Shakhtar DonetskDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 6.49% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-0 @ 6.04% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-0 @ 3.63% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 2.6% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 2.32%
3-0 @ 1.45% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 25.62%
1-1 @ 10.8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.8%
0-0 @ 5.03% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
3-3 @ 1.39% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 23.22%
1-2 @ 9.66% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-1 @ 9% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 8.05% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-3 @ 5.76% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 4.8% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-3 @ 3.46% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 2.58% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-4 @ 2.15% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-4 @ 1.55% (0.002 0)
1-5 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 51.15%

How you voted: Shakhtar vs Marseille

Shakhtar Donetsk
41.3%
Draw
23.5%
Marseille
35.2%
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