Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 49.65%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Dnipro-1 had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.45%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Dnipro-1 win it was 0-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.