Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 55.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 21.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.37%) and 0-2 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.39%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 2-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.