Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 39.31%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 36.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.