Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 50.58%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.77%) and 1-2 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-0 (8.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Porto in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Porto.