Coming up against an Arouca defence that have proven incredibly difficult to break down is the last thing that the doctor ordered for a tired Porto side, but the hosts have lost some of their defensive nous with skipper Basso absent.
While it may ultimately not be enough to see them retain their crown, a rejigged Porto side should still run out comfortable winners on Monday, delaying Benfica's expected coronation that little bit longer.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 66.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 12.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.48%) and 1-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.
0.34) 
-0.83) 
