Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 51.93%. A win for Porto had a probability of 25.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Porto |
51.93% ( 0.35) | 22.32% ( -0.11) | 25.75% ( -0.23) |
Both teams to score 61.58% ( 0.19) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.82% ( 0.35) | 38.18% ( -0.35) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.55% ( 0.37) | 60.45% ( -0.36) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.13% ( 0.24) | 14.87% ( -0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.79% ( 0.45) | 43.21% ( -0.45) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.34% ( 0.02) | 27.66% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.79% ( 0.02) | 63.21% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Porto |
2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.1% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.03) Other @ 4.12% Total : 51.93% | 1-1 @ 10.07% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.17% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.28% Total : 22.32% | 1-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.29% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.73% Total : 25.75% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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