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Porto
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 24
Mar 10, 2023 at 8.15pm UK
Estádio Do Dragão
Estoril

Porto
3 - 2
Estoril

Grujic (9'), Franco (31'), Taremi (73' pen.)
FT(HT: 2-1)
Gouveia (27'), Geraldes (67' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Chaves 1-3 Porto
Saturday, March 4 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Estoril Praia

All competitions
Last Game: Estoril 0-3 Vizela
Saturday, March 4 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 85.09%. A draw had a probability of 10.3% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 4.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 4-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.87%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (1.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
PortoDrawEstoril Praia
85.09% (0.060000000000002 0.06)10.27% (-0.039 -0.04)4.65% (-0.02 -0.02)
Both teams to score 43.19% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.17% (0.10499999999999 0.1)29.84% (-0.103 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.01% (0.125 0.13)50.99% (-0.123 -0.12)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
95.12% (0.031999999999996 0.03)4.88% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
80.38% (0.088999999999999 0.09)19.62% (-0.086000000000002 -0.09)
Estoril Praia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
45.4% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)54.6% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.36% (0.0030000000000001 0)87.64% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    Porto 85.08%
    Estoril Praia 4.65%
    Draw 10.27%
PortoDrawEstoril Praia
3-0 @ 12.23%
2-0 @ 12.15% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-0 @ 9.23% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
1-0 @ 8.05% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-1 @ 7.4%
2-1 @ 7.35% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-1 @ 5.59% (0.011 0.01)
5-0 @ 5.58% (0.021 0.02)
5-1 @ 3.38% (0.013 0.01)
6-0 @ 2.81% (0.016 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.24%
6-1 @ 1.7% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.69% (0.004 0)
7-0 @ 1.21% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.02% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 85.08%
1-1 @ 4.87% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-0 @ 2.67% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-2 @ 2.23% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 10.27%
0-1 @ 1.61% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
1-2 @ 1.47% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.56%
Total : 4.65%

How you voted: Porto vs Estoril

Porto
93.5%
Draw
4.8%
Estoril Praia
1.6%
62
Head to Head
Sep 17, 2022 6pm
Estoril
1-1
Porto
Gouveia (41')
Taremi (90+9' pen.)
Franco (5')
May 14, 2022 6pm
Porto
2-0
Estoril
Joaozinho (48' og.), Fernando (88')
Jan 8, 2022 6pm
Estoril
2-3
Porto
Arthur (38'), Franco (43' pen.)
Arthur (48'), Fonte (62'), Pinheiro (64'), Lourenco (81'), Franco (90+7')
Taremi (49'), Diaz (84'), Conceicao (89')
Conceicao (90+1'), Otavio (90+5')
Feb 21, 2018 6pm
Estoril
1-3
Porto
Eduardo (16')
Ribeiro (42'), Allano (57'), Andrade (70')
Telles (52'), Tiquinho (58', 66')
Reyes (15'), Brahimi (71'), Hernani (90')
Aug 9, 2017 7pm
Porto
4-0
Estoril
Marega (35', 62'), Brahimi (54'), Marcano (71')
Pereira (77')

Allano (51')