Champions League

Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Feb 22, 2023 at 8pm UK

San Siro

Inter Milan
1 - 0
Porto

(Inter Milan win 1-0 on aggregate)

Lukaku (86')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Inter Milan

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Inter Milan 3-1 Udinese
Saturday, February 18 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Porto

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Porto 1-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, February 18 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Porto had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Porto win was 0-1 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Inter Milan in this match.

Result
Inter Milan	Draw	Porto
41.23% ( 0.46)	27.39% ( 0)	31.38% ( -0.47)

Both teams to score 48.82% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.4% (

-0.13)

56.6% (

0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.42% (

-0.11)

77.58% (

0.1)

Inter Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.99% (

0.19)

27.01% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.63% (

0.25)

62.37% (

-0.25)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.88% (

-0.4)

33.11% (

0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.28% (

-0.44)

69.71% (

0.44)

Score Analysis

Inter Milan 41.22%

Porto 31.38%

Draw 27.38%

Inter Milan	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 11.7% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.66% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 3.7% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.09% ( 0.03) Other @ 2% Total : 41.22%	1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.94% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.38%	0-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.15% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 5.46% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.52% Total : 31.38%