Arouca
Benfica
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Chaves
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 23
Mar 4, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira
Porto

Chaves
1 - 3
Porto

Vitoria (53' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-2)
Loader (15'), Otavio (43'), Martinez (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Chaves and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions
Last Game: Rio Ave 1-0 Chaves
Sunday, February 26 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Porto

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 1-2 Gil Vicente
Sunday, February 26 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 69.31%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 12.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.73%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.46%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
ChavesDrawPorto
12.72% (0.00099999999999945 0)17.97% (0.0010000000000012 0)69.31% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)
Both teams to score 52.19% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.12% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)38.88% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.81% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)61.19% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Chaves Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.08%41.92% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.63% (0.0030000000000001 0)78.37% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.86% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)10.14% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.65% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)33.35% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Score Analysis
    Chaves 12.72%
    Porto 69.3%
    Draw 17.97%
ChavesDrawPorto
1-0 @ 3.7%
2-1 @ 3.68% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-0 @ 1.61% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 1.22%
3-1 @ 1.07%
Other @ 1.45%
Total : 12.72%
1-1 @ 8.46% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-0 @ 4.25%
2-2 @ 4.21%
3-3 @ 0.93%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 17.97%
0-2 @ 11.13%
0-1 @ 9.73%
1-2 @ 9.68%
0-3 @ 8.49% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-3 @ 7.38% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-4 @ 4.86% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-4 @ 4.22%
2-3 @ 3.21%
0-5 @ 2.22%
1-5 @ 1.93% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 1.84%
Other @ 4.6%
Total : 69.3%

How you voted: Chaves vs Porto

Chaves
15.8%
Draw
5.3%
Porto
78.9%
19
Head to Head
Dec 8, 2022 7pm
Chaves
0-2
Porto

Euller (51')
Loader (55', 59')
Sep 10, 2022 8.30pm
Porto
3-0
Chaves
Taremi (3'), Evanilson (70'), Franco (82')

Guimaraes (28')
Jan 18, 2019 7pm
Chaves
1-4
Porto
Gallo (76' pen.)
Singh (59')
Tiquinho (24', 42', 68'), Coelho (87' og.)
Tiquinho (35'), Corona (61')
Aug 11, 2018 9pm
Porto
5-0
Chaves
Aboubakar (14', 20'), Brahimi (45'), Corona (71'), Mouandilmadji (88')

Eustaquio (50'), Martins (58')
Teixeira (80')
Feb 11, 2018 4pm
Chaves
0-4
Porto

Pereira (21'), Bressan (45')
Tiquinho (14', 28'), Marega (57'), Oliveira (91')
Otavinho (49'), Pereira (56'), Corona (65'), Majeed Waris (65')
rhs 2.0


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