Arouca
Benfica
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 17
Jan 21, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Porto

Guimaraes
0 - 1
Porto

FT(HT: 0-1)
Mario (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Gil Vicente 2-1 Guimaraes
Monday, January 16 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga

Porto

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 4-1 Famalicao
Sunday, January 15 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 65.09%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 14.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.4%) and 1-2 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-0 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.

Result
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawPorto
14.09% (-0.090999999999999 -0.09)20.82% (-0.102 -0.1)65.09% (0.196 0.2)
Both teams to score 46.52% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.59% (0.227 0.23)48.41% (-0.225 -0.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.45% (0.207 0.21)70.55% (-0.206 -0.21)
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.16% (0.00099999999999767 0)45.83% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.41% (0.00099999999999767 0)81.59% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.9% (0.134 0.13)14.1% (-0.133 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.28% (0.26 0.26)41.72% (-0.259 -0.26)
Score Analysis
    Vitoria de Guimaraes 14.09%
    Porto 65.09%
    Draw 20.82%
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawPorto
1-0 @ 5.04% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
2-1 @ 3.85% (-0.017 -0.02)
2-0 @ 1.97% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-1 @ 1% (-0.004 -0)
3-2 @ 0.98%
Other @ 1.24%
Total : 14.09%
1-1 @ 9.88% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-0 @ 6.46% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-2 @ 3.77% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.71%
Total : 20.82%
0-1 @ 12.66% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-2 @ 12.4% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 9.67% (0.0019999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 8.1% (0.041 0.04)
1-3 @ 6.32% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
0-4 @ 3.97% (0.039 0.04)
1-4 @ 3.09% (0.03 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.46% (0.012 0.01)
0-5 @ 1.55% (0.023 0.02)
1-5 @ 1.21% (0.017 0.02)
2-4 @ 1.21% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 65.09%

How you voted: Guimaraes vs Porto

Vitoria de Guimaraes
9.1%
Draw
9.1%
Porto
81.8%
33
Head to Head
Apr 10, 2022 6pm
Guimaraes
0-1
Porto

Estupinan (12'), Janvier (73'), Esteves (88'), Duarte (90+8'), Rochinha (90+8')
Estupinan (80')
Taremi (36' pen.)
Otavio (30'), Costa (90+2')
Nov 28, 2021 8.30pm
Porto
2-1
Guimaraes
Diaz (39'), Evanilson (60')
Sanusi (34'), Oliveira (45+4'), Wendell (80')
Edwards (36' pen.)
Amaro (11'), Handel (42'), Mumin (45+3'), Sacko (79'), Semedo (85')
Mumin (53')
Apr 22, 2021 9pm
Porto
1-0
Guimaraes
Marega (49')
Mensah (55'), Marega (74')
Dec 29, 2020 9pm
Guimaraes
2-3
Porto
Rochinha (7'), Estupinan (63')
Mensah (15'), Pepelu (26')
Taremi (42', 65'), Diaz (80')
Baro (12')
Feb 16, 2020 5.30pm
Guimaraes
1-2
Porto
Duarte (49')
Jesus (10' og.), Marega (60')
Luis (44'), Marega (61')
rhs 2.0


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