Primeira Liga | Gameweek 11

Oct 31, 2022 at 8.15pm UK

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
3 - 2
Famalicao

Johnston (21'), Luz (56', 65')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Millan (74', 83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Famalicao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Last Game: Guimaraes 3-2 Boavista
Sunday, October 23 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Famalicao

All competitions

Last Game: Famalicao 2-1 Pacos de Ferreira
Saturday, October 22 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.81%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 25.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Famalicao
45.81% ( 1.17)	28.39% ( 0.18)	25.79% ( -1.35)

Both teams to score 43.09% (

-1.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.63% (

-1.26)

62.37% (

1.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.99% (

-0.93)

82.01% (

0.93)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.7% (

0.01)

27.3% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.26% (

0.02)

62.74% (

-0.01)

Famalicao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.26% (

-1.88)

40.74% (

1.88)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.68% (

-1.73)

77.32% (

1.73)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 45.8%

Famalicao 25.79%

Draw 28.39%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Famalicao
1-0 @ 14.43% ( 0.66) 2-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.43) 2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.18% ( -0) Other @ 1.75% Total : 45.8%	1-1 @ 12.96% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.21) Other @ 0.53% Total : 28.39%	0-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.33) 0-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.2) 0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.13) Other @ 1.29% Total : 25.79%