Arouca
Benfica
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Porto
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 14
Dec 28, 2022 at 9.15pm UK
Estádio Do Dragão
Arouca

Porto
5 - 1
Arouca

Otavio (1'), Taremi (18', 34', 50'), Opoku (70' og.)
FT(HT: 3-0)
Bruninho (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 2-0 Gil Vicente
Wednesday, December 21 at 8.15pm in Taca da Liga

Arouca

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Moreirense 1-2 Arouca
Thursday, December 22 at 8.15pm in Taca da Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 76.6%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 7.62%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.64%) and 3-0 (11.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.4%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (3.18%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
PortoDrawArouca
76.6% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)15.77% (0.004999999999999 0)7.62% (0.0131 0.01)
Both teams to score 39.98% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.68% (0.016000000000005 0.02)44.32% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.31% (0.016000000000005 0.02)66.69% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.24% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)9.76% (0.0020000000000007 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.53% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)32.47% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.3% (0.035999999999994 0.04)55.7% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.71% (0.025 0.03)88.29% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Porto 76.58%
    Arouca 7.62%
    Draw 15.77%
PortoDrawArouca
2-0 @ 14.71% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-0 @ 12.64% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 11.41% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.61% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 6.68% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 6.64% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
4-1 @ 3.89% (0.0020000000000002 0)
5-0 @ 3.09% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 1.96% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-1 @ 1.81% (0.00099999999999989 0)
6-0 @ 1.2% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-2 @ 1.14% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 76.58%
1-1 @ 7.4% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 5.44% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 2.52% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 15.77%
0-1 @ 3.18% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-2 @ 2.17% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.35%
Total : 7.62%

How you voted: Porto vs Arouca

Porto
100%
Draw
0.0%
Arouca
0.0%
36
Head to Head
Feb 6, 2022 6pm
Arouca
0-2
Porto

Kouassi (1'), Basso (45+3'), Moreira (61'), Silva (68'), Antony (90+10')
Vitinha (54'), Mbemba (57')
Conceicao (45+6'), Pepe (53'), Sanusi (75'), Marchesin (90+3'), Eustaquio (90+7')
Aug 28, 2021 6pm
Porto
3-0
Arouca
Uribe (24'), Taremi (34'), Marcano (63')
Mario (45+2'), Costa (51'), Diaz (59'), Uribe (67')

Miguel Pereira Da Silva (25'), Quaresma Correia (83'), Dabbagh (88')
Mar 10, 2017 8.30pm
Arouca
0-4
Porto

Valente (84'), Jubal (89')
Pereira (15'), Soares (25', 87'), Jota (72')
Pereira (83'), Andre (83')
Oct 22, 2016 8.30pm
Porto
3-0
Arouca
Silva (43', 78'), Brahimi (91')

Coelho (31')
Feb 7, 2016 7.15pm
Porto
1-2
Arouca
Aboubakar (14')
Maicon (65')
Gonzalez (1', 66')
Adilson (45'), Lima (59'), Gonzalez (66'), Bracali (76')
rhs 2.0


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