Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 78.66%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Mafra had a probability of 7.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.19%) and 1-0 (10.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.67%), while for a Mafra win it was 0-1 (2.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.