Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mafra win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Sporting Covilha had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mafra win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Sporting Covilha win was 1-0 (10.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.