Taca da Liga | Quarter-Finals

Dec 22, 2022 at 8.15pm UK

Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas

Moreirense
1 - 2
Arouca

Luis (44' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-0)

Esgaio (70'), Mujica (79')

Coverage of the Taca da Liga Quarter-Finals clash between Moreirense and Arouca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions

Last Game: Moreirense 1-1 Benfica
Saturday, December 17 at 7pm in Taca da Liga

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Santa Clara 1-2 Arouca
Friday, December 16 at 6.30pm in Taca da Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 35.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Moreirense	Draw	Arouca
35.39% ( 0.86)	26.79% ( 0.11)	37.81% ( -0.97)

Both teams to score 51.53% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.43% (

-0.34)

53.57% (

0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.92% (

-0.29)

75.07% (

0.29)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.07% (

0.37)

28.93% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.19% (

0.46)

64.81% (

-0.46)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.51% (

-0.7)

27.48% (

0.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.01% (

-0.92)

62.98% (

0.92)

Score Analysis

Moreirense 35.39%

Arouca 37.8%

Draw 26.79%

Moreirense	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 9.86% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 6.12% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 3.27% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.6% Total : 35.39%	1-1 @ 12.73% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.79%	0-1 @ 10.26% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 8.23% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.18) 1-3 @ 3.54% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.03% Total : 37.8%