Taca da Liga | Group Stage

Nov 27, 2022 at 5pm UK

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense
4 - 2
Estrela Amadora

Franco (32' pen.), Pacheco (45'), Alan (69'), Kodisang (83')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Salomao (26'), N'do (49')

Coverage of the Taca da Liga Group Stage clash between Moreirense and Estrela Amadora.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions

Taca da Liga

Last Game: Penafiel 1-2 Moreirense
Thursday, November 17 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-3 Benfica
Sunday, November 20 at 7pm in Taca da Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 65.73%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 13.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.2%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (4.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.

Result
Moreirense	Draw	Estrela Amadora
65.73% ( 0.27)	20.38% ( -0.16)	13.9% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 47.41% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.05% (

0.42)

46.95% (

-0.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.8% (

0.39)

69.2% (

-0.39)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.55% (

0.21)

13.45% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.56% (

0.42)

40.44% (

-0.42)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.78% (

0.09)

45.22% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.89% (

0.07)

81.11% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Moreirense 65.72%

Estrela Amadora 13.9%

Draw 20.38%

Moreirense	Draw	Estrela Amadora
2-0 @ 12.24% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 12.2% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.7% Total : 65.72%	1-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 6.08% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.75% Total : 20.38%	0-1 @ 4.83% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 3.84% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 1.27% Total : 13.9%