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Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Chaves
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21
Feb 20, 2023 at 7pm UK
Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira
Sporting Lisbon

Chaves
2 - 3
Sporting Lisbon

Teixeira (34'), Hernandez (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Goncalves (8' pen., 61'), Santos (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Chaves and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions
Last Game: Vizela 0-0 Chaves
Friday, February 10 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Midtjylland
Thursday, February 16 at 8pm in Europa League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.85%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 15.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.63%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
ChavesDrawSporting Lisbon
15.75% (0.696 0.7)21.4% (0.619 0.62)62.85% (-1.316 -1.32)
Both teams to score 48.68% (-0.325 -0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.35% (-1.291 -1.29)47.65% (1.288 1.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.15% (-1.203 -1.2)69.85% (1.201 1.2)
Chaves Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.97% (0.162 0.16)43.03% (-0.165 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.68% (0.136 0.14)79.32% (-0.139 -0.14)
Sporting Lisbon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.45% (-0.821 -0.82)14.55% (0.818 0.82)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.4% (-1.601 -1.6)42.6% (1.598 1.6)
Score Analysis
    Chaves 15.75%
    Sporting Lisbon 62.84%
    Draw 21.4%
ChavesDrawSporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 5.28% (0.301 0.3)
2-1 @ 4.29% (0.141 0.14)
2-0 @ 2.23% (0.136 0.14)
3-1 @ 1.21% (0.045 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.16% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.58%
Total : 15.75%
1-1 @ 10.17% (0.283 0.28)
0-0 @ 6.26% (0.33 0.33)
2-2 @ 4.14% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 21.4%
0-1 @ 12.07% (0.3 0.3)
0-2 @ 11.63% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
1-2 @ 9.81% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 7.47% (-0.264 -0.26)
1-3 @ 6.3% (-0.193 -0.19)
0-4 @ 3.6% (-0.239 -0.24)
1-4 @ 3.04% (-0.187 -0.19)
2-3 @ 2.66% (-0.069 -0.07)
0-5 @ 1.39% (-0.137 -0.14)
2-4 @ 1.28% (-0.073 -0.07)
1-5 @ 1.17% (-0.11 -0.11)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 62.84%

How you voted: Chaves vs Sporting Lisbon

Chaves
14.5%
Draw
16.9%
Sporting Lisbon
68.7%
83
Head to Head
Aug 27, 2022 8.30pm
Sporting Lisbon
0-2
Chaves

Edwards (36'), Ugarte (45+3'), Goncalves (66'), Morita (73'), Coates (90+4')
Vitoria (60'), Juninho (63')
Pina (67'), Euller (82')
Fernandes (90+4')
Mar 30, 2019 6pm
Chaves
1-3
Sporting Lisbon
Luis (60')
Jefferson (34'), Luis (40'), Niltinho (99'), Martins (99')
Jefferson (52')
Phellype (23', 101'), Fernandes (80')
Gudelj (37'), Gaspar (99')
Ristovski (87')
Nov 11, 2018 8pm
Sporting Lisbon
2-1
Chaves
Dost (23', 86' pen.)
Gudelj (45')
Niltinho (81')
William (83'), Paulinho (94')
Gallo (71')
Mar 12, 2018 7pm
Chaves
1-2
Sporting Lisbon
Platiny (91' pen.)
Dost (62', 86')
Ruiz (92')
Oct 22, 2017 8.15pm
Sporting Lisbon
5-1
Chaves
Dost (5', 15', 74'), Acuna (39', 58')
Martins (30')
Davidson (90')
Tiba (88')