Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arouca.