Primeira Liga | Gameweek 21

Feb 19, 2023 at 6pm UK

Estádio Municipal de Braga

Braga
2 - 0
Arouca

Ruiz (1'), Banza (81')

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Braga and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Braga

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Braga 0-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, February 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara
Saturday, February 11 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 64.68%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 14.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.79%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Braga in this match.

Result
Braga	Draw	Arouca
64.68% ( 0.39)	20.58% ( -0.16)	14.75% ( -0.23)

Both teams to score 48.91% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.91% (

0.23)

46.09% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.61% (

0.22)

68.39% (

-0.22)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.5% (

0.19)

13.5% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.47% (

0.38)

40.53% (

-0.38)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.54% (

-0.17)

43.46% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.33% (

-0.14)

79.67% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Braga 64.67%

Arouca 14.75%

Draw 20.58%

Braga	Draw	Arouca
2-0 @ 11.76% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 11.74% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 6.54% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.78% Total : 64.67%	1-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.84% Total : 20.58%	0-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.47% Total : 14.75%