Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18

Jan 31, 2023 at 9.15pm UK

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
0 - 3
Benfica

FT(HT: 0-1)

Mario (25', 54'), Musa (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Tuesday, January 24 at 7.45pm in Taca da Liga

Goals
for

Benfica

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 0-2 Benfica
Thursday, January 26 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.21%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 6.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.25%) and 0-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.17%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (2.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Benfica
6.77% ( 0.17)	13.02% ( 0.14)	80.21% ( -0.31)

Both teams to score 45.8% (

0.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.82% (

0.05)

34.18% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.93% (

0.05)

56.06% (

-0.05)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.05% (

0.52)

50.95% (

-0.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.69% (

0.35)

85.31% (

-0.35)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.38% (

-0.05)

6.62% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

75.41% (

-0.13)

24.59% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Arouca 6.77%

Benfica 80.21%

Draw 13.02%

Arouca	Draw	Benfica
1-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 2.08% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.41% Total : 6.77%	1-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.65% Total : 13.02%	0-2 @ 12.43% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 11.25% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 8.38% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 7.64% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 7.59% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 5.15% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 4.15% ( -0.07) 1-5 @ 2.8% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.05) 0-6 @ 1.88% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.03) 1-6 @ 1.27% ( -0) 2-5 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.29% Total : 80.21%