Primeira Liga
Gameweek
18
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Joao Mario
25'
-
Joao Mario
54'
-
Petar Musa
80'
Arouca vs Benfica - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
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Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.21%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 6.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.25%) and 0-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.17%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (2.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result
Arouca
6.77%
▲
(+0.17)
Draw
13.02%
▲
(+0.14)
Benfica
80.21%
▼
(-0.31)
Both Teams to Score:
45.8%
▲
(+0.46)
Goals
Over 2.5
65.82%
▲
(+0.05)
Under 2.5
34.18%
▼
(-0.05)
Over 3.5
43.93%
▲
(+0.06)
Under 3.5
56.06%
▼
(-0.06)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5
49.05%
▲
(+0.52)
Under 0.5
50.95%
▼
(-0.52)
Over 1.5
14.69%
▲
(+0.35)
Under 1.5
85.31%
▼
(-0.35)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5
93.38%
▼
(-0.05)
Under 0.5
6.62%
▲
(+0.06)
Over 1.5
75.41%
▼
(-0.14)
Under 1.5
24.59%
▲
(+0.14)
Score analysis
Arouca
6.77%
Draw
13.02%
Benfica
80.21%
Arouca
1-0
@
2.27%
▲
(+0.03)
2-1 @ 2.08% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 6.77%
2-1 @ 2.08% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 6.77%
Draw
1-1
@
6.17%
▲
(+0.07)
0-0 @ 3.37% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 2.83% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 13.02%
0-0 @ 3.37% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 2.83% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 13.02%
Benfica
0-2
@
12.43%
▼
(-0.10)
0-3 @ 11.25% ▼ (-0.12)
0-1 @ 9.16% ▼ (-0.05)
1-2 @ 8.38% ▲ (+0.06)
0-4 @ 7.64% ▼ (-0.11)
1-3 @ 7.59% ▲ (+0.04)
1-4 @ 5.15% ▲ (+0.01)
0-5 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.07)
1-5 @ 2.8% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.56% ▲ (+0.05)
0-6 @ 1.88% ▼ (-0.04)
2-4 @ 1.74% ▲ (+0.03)
1-6 @ 1.27% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 4.23%
Total : 80.21%
0-3 @ 11.25% ▼ (-0.12)
0-1 @ 9.16% ▼ (-0.05)
1-2 @ 8.38% ▲ (+0.06)
0-4 @ 7.64% ▼ (-0.11)
1-3 @ 7.59% ▲ (+0.04)
1-4 @ 5.15% ▲ (+0.01)
0-5 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.07)
1-5 @ 2.8% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.56% ▲ (+0.05)
0-6 @ 1.88% ▼ (-0.04)
2-4 @ 1.74% ▲ (+0.03)
1-6 @ 1.27% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 4.23%
Total : 80.21%
Mateus Quaresma
45'+1'