Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 76.65%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 7.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.43%) and 0-3 (11.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.3%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 1-0 (3.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Santa Clara | Draw | Benfica |
7.96% ( -0.27) | 15.39% ( -0.17) | 76.65% ( 0.44) |
Both teams to score 42.95% ( -0.66) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.75% ( -0.16) | 41.25% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.35% ( -0.16) | 63.65% ( 0.16) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
47.19% ( -0.76) | 52.8% ( 0.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.48% ( -0.49) | 86.52% ( 0.48) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.01% ( 0.06) | 8.99% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.36% ( 0.15) | 30.64% ( -0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Santa Clara | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.63% Total : 7.96% | 1-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.53% Total : 15.39% | 0-2 @ 13.77% ( 0.18) 0-1 @ 11.43% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 11.06% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 8.8% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 7.07% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 6.66% ( 0.13) 1-4 @ 4.26% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 3.21% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.07) 1-5 @ 2.05% 2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.03) 0-6 @ 1.29% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.44% Total : 76.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
12 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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