Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.74%. A draw had a probability of 13.8% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 8.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.76%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.34%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-2 (2.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Portimonense |
77.74% ( 0) | 13.76% ( -0.02) | 8.51% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 52.38% ( 0.22) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.24% ( 0.21) | 30.76% ( -0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.89% ( 0.25) | 52.1% ( -0.25) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.62% ( 0.04) | 6.37% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.08% ( 0.13) | 23.92% ( -0.13) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.95% ( 0.2) | 44.05% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.83% ( 0.17) | 80.17% ( -0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Portimonense |
2-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 8% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 6.72% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 5.51% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 3.7% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) Other @ 4.04% Total : 77.74% | 1-1 @ 6.34% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.04% Total : 13.76% | 1-2 @ 2.6% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.69% Total : 8.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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