Benfica
Taca da Liga | Group Stage
Nov 26, 2022 at 8.45pm UK
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Penafiel

Benfica
2 - 0
Penafiel

Gilberto (55'), Neres (57')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Taca da Liga clash between Benfica and Penafiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 2-3 Benfica
Sunday, November 20 at 7pm in Taca da Liga

Penafiel

All competitions
Taca da Liga
Last Game: Penafiel 1-2 Moreirense
Thursday, November 17 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 88.2%. A draw had a probability of 8.5% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 3.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 3-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.36%) and 4-0 (10.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.04%), while for a Penafiel win it was 0-1 (1.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
BenficaDrawPenafiel
88.2% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)8.49% (0.026 0.03)3.3% (0.032 0.03)
Both teams to score 39.05% (0.225 0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.87% (0.076999999999998 0.08)28.13% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.1% (0.095999999999997 0.1)48.9% (-0.096999999999994 -0.1)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
95.93% (0.0010000000000048 0)4.07% (-0.0028999999999995 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
82.9% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)17.09% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Penafiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
40.7% (0.235 0.23)59.29% (-0.23500000000001 -0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
9.71% (0.1211 0.12)90.28% (-0.123 -0.12)
Score Analysis
    Benfica 88.19%
    Penafiel 3.31%
    Draw 8.49%
BenficaDrawPenafiel
3-0 @ 13.19% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-0 @ 12.36% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
4-0 @ 10.56% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-0 @ 7.72% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-1 @ 6.9% (0.024 0.02)
5-0 @ 6.77% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-1 @ 6.46% (0.022 0.02)
4-1 @ 5.52% (0.021 0.02)
6-0 @ 3.61% (-0.012 -0.01)
5-1 @ 3.54% (0.015 0.02)
6-1 @ 1.89% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.8% (0.02 0.02)
7-0 @ 1.65% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.44% (0.016 0.02)
5-2 @ 0.92% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 3.85%
Total : 88.19%
1-1 @ 4.04% (0.012 0.01)
0-0 @ 2.41% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-2 @ 1.69% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 8.49%
0-1 @ 1.26% (0.004 0)
1-2 @ 1.06% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 3.31%

How you voted: Benfica vs Penafiel

Benfica
86.7%
Draw
6.7%
Penafiel
6.7%
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