Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 60.37%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Sporting Covilha had a probability of 17.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Sporting Covilha win it was 0-1 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.

Result
Portimonense	Draw	Sporting Covilha
60.37% ( -0.18)	21.71% ( 0.07)	17.92% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 52.2% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.74% (

-0.14)

45.26% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.4% (

-0.13)

67.6% (

0.13)

Portimonense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.45% (

-0.1)

14.55% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.4% (

-0.2)

42.6% (

0.19)

Sporting Covilha Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.09% (

0.04)

38.91% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.36% (

0.04)

75.64% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Portimonense 60.36%

Sporting Covilha 17.92%

Draw 21.71%

Portimonense	Draw	Sporting Covilha
1-0 @ 10.91% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.51% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.38% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.07% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.64% Total : 60.36%	1-1 @ 10.3% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.71%	0-1 @ 5.34% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.47% ( 0) Other @ 2.19% Total : 17.92%