Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 58.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 19.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.09%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.6%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
Result | ||
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Braga |
19.47% ( -0.05) | 22.35% ( -0) | 58.17% ( 0.05) |
Both teams to score 52.91% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.29% ( -0.06) | 45.71% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.97% ( -0.05) | 68.03% ( 0.05) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.55% ( -0.08) | 37.45% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.77% ( -0.08) | 74.23% ( 0.08) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.59% ( -0) | 15.41% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.77% ( -0.01) | 44.23% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Braga |
1-0 @ 5.67% ( 0) 2-1 @ 5.21% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 1.6% Total : 19.47% | 1-1 @ 10.6% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.35% | 0-1 @ 10.79% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 10.09% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.91% ( -0) 0-3 @ 6.29% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.18% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.94% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.89% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.42% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.1% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.44% Total : 58.17% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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